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Garden Mum's avatar

Thank you for this interesting and well written piece, as always a treat. But allow me to come with some counter arguments, really against the whole idea of scrutinizing the dogmas of any religion. The narratives of all religions are painted with broad brushes indeed and they are supposed to be mysterious, i.e. not logical at all.

Religion and logic are not at all compatible. In medieval times a lot of philosophers wasted their time trying to make these ends meet. And logic is still not the way to convince religious people that they are wrong, because a fairy tale is a fairy tale and cannot be treated as natural science (or logic).

Why is religion so important to so many people? Because of the fear of death, perhaps? Many people really, really don’t want it to be true that life ends when our bodies stop functioning. (We cannot know for sure, it’s a matter of taste what stance to take regarding this question and everyone is entitled to his/her own best belief.)

2300 years ago a philosopher, Epicuros, launched the idea that the soul is living in and by the body and cannot survive when the body dies, which according to him implies that death is nothing to fear. There is no hell and the gods are not at all interested in either promoting or punishing the mortals. (Neither did they create the world, according to Epicuros. To dismiss them altogether would probably have been a too great crime at the time.)

Philosophy doesn’t need to work with the most obscure and fabricated problems. It can also do as Epicuros and start at a fresher angle.

The concept of hell is not credible to modern secular people. But the concept of death is of course horrible to our individual-based lifestyle. ”If there isn’t life beyond death, then there is no meaning at all with life” one of my friends said.

Suppose there is no meaning, what are you going to do about that, I answered. Life in itself is such a marvel, just enjoy. And create some meaning to it as you go along. May the Force be with you.

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Doctor Hammer's avatar

Your argument that safety (via being in the worst place) is better than risk is flawed.

From the economics angle you are making the correct claim that it is reasonable to pay 100$ to avoid a 10% risk of losing 1000$. Where you go wrong is then saying that therefore the risk is as bad as the actual bad outcome. It becomes more clear when you consider the end states. Before insurance (or whatever you are spending 100$ on) the two states are having 1000$ (90%) or 0$ (10%). After spending 100$ to remove risk you get to 900$ (100% depending on the insurance). In this case it is obvious that safety is not better than risk; if it were you would be willing to pay up to 1000$, but instead you keep 900$ and call it a day. It isn't reasonable to just burn the 1000$ to do away with the risk of losing it.

The second issue is that you treat the worst thing happening to you as a point estimate instead of a recurring process when you discuss safety. If you lose a leg in an industrial accident it doesn't just suck for that instant, but you are losing all future value, or from another perspective, it causes you active problems every day for the rest of your life. Likewise with hell, the "safety" of it not getting worse, while possibly a mental relief, still comes with the eternal torment part. It isn't the possibility of things getting worse that is the torture, it is the actual torture. Actual torture with 100% probability is worse than potential torture with <100% probability, unless one is so neurotic that the fear of any possibility torture is less compelling than the torture itself. That is probably a non-zero percent of the population, but a vanishingly small one I suspect.

So, yea, one cannot claim that safety is categorically better than risk.

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